The Return of Armen Sargysan??? From Where to Where....

Hraparak published a short story on April 16th that this man, formerly many things but now known as a businessman in the UK, may be up for being the next Prime Minister. I haven't seen much else about it. The story published is below, and highlights the important role Armen Sarsyan has played in SS's political career - more specifically, that most of SS's pre-election projects were successful because of Armen Sargsyan:

Չի բացառվում, որ մոտ ժամանակներս Հայաստան հրավիրվի նախկին վարչապետ Արմեն Սարգսյանը, որը պատրաստվում է երկրորդ անգամ ստանձնել այդ պաշտոնը: Արմեն Սարգսյանը հսկայական կարողությունների տեր գործիչ է, ապրում եւ աշխատում է Բրիտանիայում: Սերժ Սարգսյանի նախընտրական պրոյեկտների մեծ մասը հաջողություն են ունեցել հենց այս մարդու շնորհիվ, ՄԻԱԿ կուսակցությունը Սարգսյանի հորինածն է, բարձր է նաեւ նրա միջազգային հեղինակությունը: Բրիտանահայ մեծահարուստը վերջին անգամ Հայաստանում եղել է կես տարի առաջ՝ հոր պատվին կառուցած "Սուրբ Վարդան" մատուռի բացման եւ օրհնության կապակցությամբ: Վարչապետի այս փոփոխությամբ, ըստ նախագահամերձ մեր աղբյուրի, Սերժ Սարգսյանը փորձելու է թուլացնել ներքաղաքական լարվածությունը, միաժամանակ՝ շոշափելի միջոցներ ներգրավել համաշխարհային ճգնաժամին դիմակայելու համար:

Pashinyan: On How Armenia is Getting Stronger

Pashinyan recently wrote a piece, posted in Haykakan Zhamanak and his webpage, that really caught my eye. Here it is:

ON HOW ARMENIA IS GETTING STRONGER

In his last press conference Serge Sargsyan heralded the people of Armenia with the news that even if it turns out that Turkey turned Armenia like a little screw, it won’t really be a problem, because Armenia will come out of it even stronger than before. The coalition forces chimed in, saying: “Ah, the whole world will know that Armenia is prepared to establish relations with Turkey without preconditions.”

Actually, up till now, the world wasn’t aware, actually the world hadn’t even realized, that the closed border between Armenia and Turkey first and foremost harms Armenia, turning it into a courtyard with two walls. And now, with this statement, the world will think that it is Armenia that has blockaded Turkey. This piece of “news” will run international headlines, announcing: “Hear this, oh, you people of the world, Armenia was ready to lift the blockade against Turkey with no preconditions, but that ungrateful Turkey didn’t take advantage of the golden opportunity. And so now, because of Turkey’s immature politics, Armenia has won a diplomatic victory and is stronger because it’s suffocating Turkey.”

Absurd! Totally Absurd!

When we follow Serge Sargsyan’s thoughts, it becomes clear that in Armenia, Haylur-ism has become state ideology. Now, let’s look at what Serge Sargsyan is saying from this perspective. He says that it’s possible that the authorities in Armenia might be wrong in calculating their games with Turkey. But, he insists that even if that’s the case, Armenia will just become stronger. So, now we know that miscalculation is the number one weapon of Armenia’s foreign policy. You miscalculate, you get more powerful, then you miscalculate again, and you get even more powerful, then you keep miscalculating, and you get much more powerful.

In your opinion, how did Armenia submit not just Azerbaijan, but all of her enemies, to diplomatic genocide during the years of the Kocharyan-Sargsyan rule? Of course, but of course, because they miscalculated! Just between us, miscalculation is a weapon you can’t control because if you calculate correctly, your opponent can figure out your miscalculations. If, however, you miscalculate, your opponent can’t figure it out. Idiocy is an immeasurable and unpredictable asset. That’s why, in current politics, the honorable Knights-- Sir Edik Nalbandyan and Sir Vardan Oskanyan--are in the Super Directorate of Armenia’s current foreign policy. They can make the kinds of miscalculations that even the failing graduates of the school for morons will not be able to understand!

But we digress too much! We were speaking of Haylurism and maybe it’s appropriate to explain its uniqueness. For example, frosts are possible in Armenia, but there’s nothing to worry about, because even if frost hits the crops, they will only bloom and develop because of it. Emigration out of Armenia is becoming alarming, but there’s really no need to be concerned about it because the more people leave Armenia the more the number of voters will be. Crime statistics are going up, but one should only be happy, because the State is honest with its own people and does not hide the Truth. The economic crisis has reached Armenia, but that should give us all reason to be happy because we finally know that even we, poor slobs, are part of this world!

Just think, we had almost lost hope because when people all over the world were happy, Armenians were miserable. Now, the economic crisis has made a lot of people miserable, and we finally measure up to international standards. And so what if Armenia’s economy collapses, we’ll just come out of it stronger, because the most powerful people are those who have nothing else to lose.

And that is the Serjandakan strategy to make Armenia more powerful!

[photo from Nikolpashinyan.com]

Playing Games and Promoting Brotherly Love

There are some serious games being played, and I fear that in the end it will be Armenia who loses out. Its not clear who is in control of what, or whom. But what is clear is that somehow SS has managed to do something none of the Presidents of an Independent Armenia since 1991 have done so far, he seems to have brought Azerbaijan and Turkey closer together. Who says he isn't a peacemaker? Take a look at some of these goings on...

After all of the hype of the Armenia-Turkey border, (including the entwinement of both Genocide recognition and NK resolution into the hype), it seems the talks are falling apart. Not surprising. On April 10, Baku set forth its set of three conditions for Turkey's normalization of relations with Armenia (Hurriyet article).

1. Armenian Forces should withdraw from five of the seven regions around NK
2. The Southern region of Lachin, below the corridor, should be returned
3. Turkey must have access to the Lachin corridor (see my old post re Lachin)

That's quite the list. And 5 days later (Hurriyet), several members of Turkey's parliament made clear their allegiance to Azerbaijan; And Erdogan is now saying that the NK issue must be resolved before further progress in Turkish Armenian relations. Did no one think of this potential snag prior to the talks about normalizing relations? Are these the criteria set forth in the secret meetings last year, that SS thought he would be able to pull off so readily (remember SS thinking he would be able to dictate a settlement to NK), and now has not been able to? If so, given SS's inability to produce promised results, is the publication of these criteria a show of frustration from the Azeri side, or is it part of a plan (of which SS is aware) for forcing NK and the Armenian people to agree to a deal, which he signed last year?
But, fret not. On April 15, SS came out and said that "Kharabagh cannot enter Azerbaijan's territory." So don't worry, he's clearly in control.

And what about PACE? They seem to keep delaying and delaying (sounds like a familiar tactic used by the courts in Armenia). Once again, after all the hype about the Co-rapporteur report in March of this year, and what it meant, and what it would mean when it was presented to PACE this April, guess what? This Armenian issue is not even on the schedule to be discussed in April - thanks Colombier and Prescott. Take a look at the Draft Agenda for the April meetings. There is an open spot at 10:30 am one of the days for any emergency issues, but that's it. And in fact, if you look at the specific Monitoring Committee Reports website, the next time the Armenian issue is noted to be likely to be discussed is "2010, First Part Session." Mr. Arman Grigoryan, who has represented the ANC/Opposition in the past to PACE, has commented on this lack of inclusion into the April PACE meetings, and is apparently going to visit Strasbourg soon to see what is going on.

More hype, more distraction, more collapse, more confusion and misinformation, more time passes, more collapse. Maybe SS is distracting not only the people of Armenia, but himself. Hoping that the long, painful, car ride of his presidency will just go by more quickly if he can play games and distract himself.

Why Now?

UPDATE: you can hear Ghalamkaryan's interview with RFE/RL from April 11, at 7pm (19:00) here. The interview is from about4:20 to 6:10.

As both Unzipped and HNazarian have pointed out, and RFE and Hetq have reported, Karo Simidyan and Aramazd Ghalamkaryan had their apartments searched by police, and were taken in for questioning earlier today. Both, it seems, have been released, though Ghalamkaryan's computer is still being questioned, and he has to return for further questioning on the 17th of this month. As per the Hetq article, Mr. Simidyan's son is said to be friends with Pashinyan, as is Ghalamkaryan, who runs his own pro-opposition blog (aramazd.livejournal.com).

I wonder why this is happening now. Pashinyan has been on the run for over a year, and his writings have been published for just as long. Interestingly, there was another first the other day when among those taken in for questioning to the police station was Levon Zurabyan - who is usually the one negotiating with the police. Tensions seem to be rising, but why now? Is it the upcoming demonstration on May 1, the Mayoral elections on May 31? Is the persistence of protesters on Northern Ave striking just the wrong cord with the authorities?
Maybe it means something that the first four stories on RFE/RL (in Armenian) on 11 April were the following:

1.The Apartments of Nikol Pashinyan's Friends are Searched
2.R. Erdogan "The Kharabagh problem has to be solved first"
3.S. Sargsyan "The ball is in Turkey's Court"
4.L. Zurabyan "The key to success is activism"

Things just don't seem to be going the way they were supposed to for Sargsyan and Co. Or maybe Sargsyan was just playing a game with Turkey, and border talks, and Genocide talks, and he never took any of it seriously other than for show, just like he has been playing a game with Armenia, and (supposedly) caring about the people of Armenia has been a charade.

Regardless of what is causing these new patterns, something seems different, and its still not clear why SS decided this was the time to make a more publicly visible search for Pashinyan, if that's what it is.
What it definitely is, is intimidation. As is taking in Zurabyan, who is generally seen as the negotiator and peacemaker at the demonstrations, as is what the authorities did tonight: taking 4 minors in for questioning from Northern Ave while not allowing them attorneys - who were forced to wait outside. The a1plus report states they were taken around 8pm, 2 were released around 10pm and the other 2 around 1am.

How do you remind people that you're in control? You strike at the young, the old, and the peaceful; at those who keep the fire burning and those who spread the news.

The Ombudsman spoke, but what did he say?

The Ombudsman gave a lecture and answered questions yesterday at the University of Michigan. I hope the University will make the video available online, which you can be sure I will post. While his lecture was interesting, he kept it short to be able to answer questions, to which his responses (or lack thereof in some cases) were much more interesting. Here are some highlights of questions, and issues that were brought up.

-He feels it is important to have a strong opposition, as it is with a strong opposition that governments (in general) can be pushed toward democracy. He feels strongly that it his his job to point out the problems in both sides.

-He does feel there is freedom of press in written and web-based media. But not in television media.

-When the different techniques of the government versus the opposition were pointed out, including the beatings of opposition journalists, the Ombudsman's answer was vague. He pointed out how he can only comment on these occurrences. There was no further discussion of the significance of this government strategy of intimidation and violence.

-He strongly feels the judicial system is not independent in Armenia.

-While some of today's Opposition in Armenia works via good mechanisms, some do not. He likened some of the oppositions mechanisms to blackmail, and cited pressures on himself, Raffi Hovhanissyan, and at least one of the Co-rapporteurs of PACE (I think it was John Prescott). He feels some of the Opposition just want to replace those in power with themselves. [He conveniently did not make reference to his own request for increased security for himself and his family about a year or so ago].
However, when pushed to give true, specific examples, he could not do so.

-He felt himself and his office could not follow ALL of the trials occurring in Armenia now, so he had made the decision to make statements about them at the end of them.

-There was a recurring theme that his position is not a political one, it is a legal one. This was the reasoning given as to why he cannot use the term "Political Prisoner." It was also the reason that he feels he can not make things happen, he can only comment on them.

-When asked about the most recent activities on Northern Avenue, especially the "misunderstanding," he said these things, unfortunately, happen in Armenia. Nothing more.

-When asked if he thought the trials and judgments of Jhangiryan and Ashot Manukyan were fair, he said he had been out of Armenia for a while, and did not know the final conclusions. [Jhangiryan's trial ended March 23, Manukyans ended in December, with the Appeal within months of that]

-He stated: "I try to not be involved in the policy of the government and opposition. I only try to present their attention to their mistakes, which in my opinion they are doing…[] from the point of view of huamn rights and democracy…"

-He noted that he has answered more questions about the oppositions at that Q+A session than he had in Armenia. He usually avoids answering questions about the opposition because they are part of the checks and balances, and he is a mediator, he is in between the government and the opposition.

In the Shadow of Border/Genocide talks, Bazaz and his troupe strike at human rights again... literally

A1plus is reporting that one of their reporters was beaten up earlier today on Northern Boulevard, that was reported to have been just minutes before 8:30 pm Yerevan time. The reporter, David Jalalyan, was apparently beaten up by the now infamous Chief of Patrol Division Robert Melkonyan, who through his numerous appearances has come to have a nickname, Bazaz.
It is also known at this time, through articles and Press Releases from the Armenian National Congress, that around 6pm, 11 individuals were taken by police forces from Northern Boulevard, including Levon Zurabyan, who is the coordinator/spokesperson for the ANC. For those who don't remember, he is often the one dealing directly with the police/security forces, trying to get permission for demonstrations. It seems at least Zurabyan has been released at this time, as per the most recent A1 plus article (in Armenian only so far). As per that last A1plus article, Zurabyan has been set free.
Below is the list of 11 individuals taken in by the police.
I wonder if the staunch supporters of human rights at Civilitas can see all of this happening on Northern Boulevard. Or were their lights turned off, just like those at the Foreign Embassies on March 1-2.

Vahagn Gevorgyan
Gevorg Boyajyan
Mariam Poghosyan
Alla Sardaryan
Svetlana Mikayelyan
Valentina Mirzoyan
Arayik Mirzoyan
Anahit Grigoryan
Armen Tovmasyan
Levon Zurabyan (now thought to be set free)
Ashot Tatevosyan

a1plus video

video from a1plus

Nalbandyan says No Preconditions - not Genocide, not NK, no nada... Really?

A1plus has run a short story on Nalbandyan's recent comments:

"The normalisation of Armenian-Turkish relations should have no preconditions and it is with this mutual understanding that we have been negotiating with the Turkish side," said Armenia's Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian in reply to the recent statements of some Turkish officials.
Normalisation of the relations has no linkage to the resolution of the Nagorno Karabakh problem and has never been a subject of negotiations towards the normalisation of Armenian - Turkish relations.
It has been said many times, and I want to stress it again, that the normalisation of Armenian-Turkish relations can never question the reality of Armenian Genocide.

Where is the internal consistency in this statement? Genocide is not a precondition, but normalisation can never question the reality of Armenian Genocide? Each of the sentences seems to try to satisfy a different group applying pressure, whether its Turkey, the ARF, or western countries trying to "help solve" these issues. These are nice statements, maybe, but not connected to each other, or to any reality. For just one example of what I'm talking about, see the transcript of Erdogan's statement at Chattham house, just one post ago.

Funny, the LTP administration tried to separate Genocide recognition from present day politics. It was Kocharyan who brought it back into the picture, thus gaining the support of the ARF, whom he kept in his back pocket, and the identity-confused Spyurk. Now, the lives and rights of present day Armenians continue to be oppressed, the economic situation is in crisis, and we're going in circles about NK-Genocide-border issues, and it seems (to some) the way out is to do a swap (funny, sounds like something Kocharyan tried to do with Meghri back in the day). Recognition of the Genocide has become a bartering tool, it has become demeaned to a poker chip thrown into a pile. I know that isn't the intention of the ARF, but that's where we've landed.

UPDATE: Hurriyet Article:
Armenian FM expected to arrive in Turkey late afternoon
ISTANBUL – The attendance of the Armenian Foreign Minister at the Alliance of Civilizations summit has become a mystery after he failed to board a flight from Yerevan Sunday night as expected.
"His strong language in his statements to Interfax news Sunday denying that the Karabakh issue is not related to establishing relations between Turkey and Armenia were interpreted as a reaction to Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan’s statements.
Turkey will not lift its blockade of Armenia unless the country fulfils Turkey’s preconditions regarding the Karabakh issue and the international recognition of the Armenian claims regarding the 1915 incidents, Erdogan said in London Friday during the G20 summit."

The Solution to the Genocide Issue Has Certain Other Connections

Armenian-Turkish relations, border politics, and Genocide recognition have been intertwined ever since independence in 1991.  Back then, the LTP administration thought a key factor to developing an economically and politically stable Armenia was the solution of the NK war.  To that end, Genocide recognition, Hay Tad, was put on the back burner.  The border remained closed, except for a few instances here and there (which are of great significance but a whole different story).  During the 1990's, the ARF was critical (to put it nicely) of the LTP administration for even thinking about trying to have some type of relations with Turkey, considering this type of thought a type of blasphemy.  Of course, the ARF is the same group that despite years of dreaming of a free and independent Armenia did not rejoice at the 1991 independence; despite a  history, name, emblem and oath which imply and swear to protect Armenia, mustered fewer than 10 Diasporans to fight in the war and is thought to have "lost" money which was meant to go toward the war effort; and who today sits in the ruling coalition, grabbing on to whatever power it can, while intermittently tossing out weak criticisms of the government's decisions that sound more like suggestions.  And even today, when there is so much discussion about potential border opening without Genocide recognition, the ARF still cannot bring itself to make a strong statement that might jeopardize whatever power they may have. As per a recent A1+ article, Manoyan said the ARF is not against the border opening, but "we are getting ready to release a document to prevent the possible dangers of that." Phew. But I digress. 

With all of the recent comments and opinions about all that may or may not happen this month vis a vis Genocide Recognition, and the Turkish border, and how the fact that these are now linked to NK, as well as the criticism (or lack thereof) of the current unacceptable political situation in Armenia, I thought it might be worthwhile to post the transcript of what Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan said regarding Armenia on his April 3 Speech to Chattham House. The full speech and the Q+A which followed are available at the Chattham House website. The section on Armenia was actually in the Q+A section (minutes 11:50-16:13), where all of the questions were posed at the beginning, and then the questions answered collectively by the Prime minister.

Now, next to Iraq, Israel, Syria, and the Co-chair added immediately, Armenia to that triangle, so let me make a general assessment. Well, Turkey does not have any animosity or any hatred towards anybody. But there are certain circles who have, and feed these feelings against us. In the international arena, we have never, never accused anybody of genocide, be it real or so-called from the past. But the Armenian Diaspora unfortunately is doing exactly that for years and years. They are underlining the fact that there has been a so-called genocide in Turkey. This is not something that we can accept, something that has not taken place. In 2005, I wrote a letter to President Kocharyan and I said, this is an issue that needs to be investigated by historians. I said, let historians, legal experts, archeologists, sociologists examine this issue, let them prepare a report, and let us politicians then decide on the basis of this report. However he never answered my letter. But now, a positive process has started, as you know, on the occasion of the national football team game in Armenia, the President of our Republic went to Armenia and then they came together again on an occasion in Washington, then I met Mr. Sargysan in Davos. Our Foreign Ministers are constantly talking to each other, at lower levels the bureaucrats, technocrats are in contact. We want to solve this problem. But that solution has certain other connections. For instance, there has been for the last 17 years the Minsk troika working on this issue, composed of United States, Russia and France. What are they going to solve the problem of Nagorny-Kharabagh, which is a problem between Azerbaijan and Armenia. As long as that problem is not resolved, it is not possible for us to adopt a healthy decision. But we have still taken certain steps as a preparation of the way, and we are trying also to prepare the region for this development. We are talking to our Azeri friends, we are talking to our Armenian friends. But we tell them, Russia, France and the United States, they should accelerate their work, and they should conclude that work so that they can facilitate our hand. We established the Caucasian Cooperation and Stability Platform, and we are working on that. We are working on a geographical basis: Russia, Turkey, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Armenia. Five countries belong to that platform. Russia has serious problems with Georgia, for instance, how can they come together? In the same way as Turkey will come together with Armenia, for instance. Because we want a world based on peace, where the neighboring countries do not hate each other, do not fight with each other. And, even for two years we have been elected to the Security Council of the United Nations, and so we have a responsibility in that framework as well.

Ombudsman Armen Harutyunyan is visiting the US

According to A1plus, Mr Harutyunyan will be visiting the US on a State Department sponsored trip, and having meetings related to Human Rights. On April 9, he will be giving a lecture and subsequent discussion in Michigan, and apparently its going to be webcast live. So, for the first time, those of us who have only ever seen the small snippets of him from YouTube will get to see so much more.
Not only that, but the Press Release (English, Armenian) mentions that viewers can send emails during the talk, of questions they want to ask the Ombudsman.
It's a little frustrating that it will be midnight or so Armenian time when the webcast will be live. But I don't see why questions can't be emailed in advance, and maybe they'll make the video available afterwards as well.  

Wouldn't it be great if the webcast was shown Live on large screens around Yerevan, or shown on television, on April 9th? But I suppose if the freedom to do that existed in Armenia, the Ombudsman wouldn't be visiting the US to "have meetings" about Human Rights.

So many questions to be asked, especially as there seem to be increasing tensions between the Opposition and the Ombudsman. So many questions...

See the Press Releases above for more information.

The email to send questions to is: armenianstudies@umich.edu
The site for the Live Webcast is: http://umtv-live.rs.itd.umich.edu/asp/asp040909.asx

Less than 24 hours apart...

The news regarding the supposed thaw between Turkey and Armenia continues. Hurriyet and Azerbaijan's APA are just two of many more sources reporting that there have been ongoing talks between Yerevan and Ankara about improving relations, and potentially opening the border. Of course, it seems generally accepted that a lot depends on Obama's next move. Nalbandyan continues to deny most of what is being reported in the news. Of course, this isn't a new tactic for the regime - denial and mixed messages beget confusion, hopelessness, and disinterest.
The Public Radio of Armenia website reported most recently on the potential thaw on 3.30.2009 at 16:22. Three articles and less than 24 hours later, 3.31.2009 at 10:52 is the article entitled: PACE positively assesses Armenia’s implementation of Res. 1643. Coincidence?

APA has an article quoting Ross Wilson, former US ambassador to Azerbaijan and Turkey. In the article, he is quoted as saying: “I think what is critical in that complicated part of the world that try to put together some of the building blocks that produce peace. Peace for the relationship between Turkey and Armenia, resolution perhaps between Azerbaijan and Armenia on Nagorno Karabakh conflict, be able to reach to move forward." The quote is out of context, clearly. But I think it points out what is truly important to those who "deal" with these issues. Principles such as Peace and Stability apply only when convenient.
Not so different from the principle of "respect for truth and peace" that Arman Rustamyan refers to in his letter to Howard Berman, which the ARF seems to apply on an "as needed" basis.

[thanks to informative dialogue between Bruce Tasker and Ani on Khosq for bringing some of the references to my attention]

Open Letters... Javakhk and Political Prisoners

In the past few days, two Open Letters caught my eye:

Open letter of Vahagn Chakhalyan to the President of Georgia Mikheil Saahakshvili
Chakhalyan is the leader of the «United Javakhk» Democratic Alliance» political movement

and

the Letter from the Wives of the Political Prisoners to Mr. Hammarberg

The Cheryomukha-7, blunt objects, and the Order

We've known for a while now that three of the victims of March 1 were killed because of supposed "incorrect use" of the the Cheryomukha-7, whose shells are meant to be fired into the air (and not directly at a person).
First there was a question of how old the shells were: it was noted that they were outdated, and maybe that was the problem. Or that they were used improperly because instead of being fired into the air, they were fired directly into a crowd. And Russian exports reported that even aged shells, if shot into the air correctly, wouldn't kill someone.
But the autopsies showed that two of the three were shot in the head, and one in the hip - the cause of death not at all related to gas, but to direct impact.
Initially it was thought that experts would be able to trace shell fragments to specific guns, which was important especially as investigators had discovered that there were only four officers who were carrying those weapons. But somehow, the fragments didn't lend themselves to further studies and identification. And even now the government refuses to answer specific questions about the use of those weapons.
Alla Hovhannisyan, mother of Tigran Khachatryan, the first victim of March 1, has been interviewed multiple times, and has pointed out significant discrepancies in the investigation and reports. As the ArmeniaNow article from March 1 on the topic reports, the Prosecutor's documents state that “Tigran Khachatryan, at about 20:00 along with several participants of the mass disorder, went to the Leo crossroad from Myasnikyan’s statue, and he died there at about 21:30.” Yet, the last video he caught on his phone was for 2 minutes starting at 21:19, the demonstration held at the Myasnikyan’s statue. How could he have be at Leo Street since 20:00 and have shot the demonstration at the Myasnikyan’s statue? How could he have gone a kilometer in 8 minutes and appeared in the Leo Street and ‘participated in the mass disorder’? (paraphrased from the article).

Well, yesterday's RFE/RL had another interesting tidbit.

Testifying before the commission earlier this week, Khachatrian mother, Alla Hovannisian, revealed the findings of a forensic examination which suggested that the young man was repeatedly hit by a blunt object before being shot dead late on March 1.

If the forensic examiner is correct, then this yet a whole new dimension. There is no error, no expiration, no miscalculation or incorrect use in beating someone. There is no incorrect firing angle, no distance, and no anonymity.

And in the end, we're still left asking, who gave the order?

[see 2/20/09 article from ArmeniaNow for a summary]

Vardanyan reports that he is giving Jhangiryan 3 years

Anyone who has listened to or watched the news in Armenia knows that there seems to be some type of race among reporters to see who can speak the fastest, even to the extent of being almost incomprehensible at times. For those television newscasters reading from a paper report, they often read so quickly that they barely have time to lift their heads to look at the camera.
Which is why it is not surprising that Judge Vardanyan spoke so quickly, and didn't raise his head during his sentencing of Jhangiryan - he was reading a report. Maybe he wrote it, maybe he even chose what to say,.. maybe. But compare how he reads his document, and how Jhangiryan read his own, almost 50 page text on the 18th, and what's happening is clear. As his lawyer Lusine Sahakyan said, "Vardanyan was unable to disobey an order."

This is the video of the sentencing:


Lragir posted the text of Jhangiryan's speech, but then it disappeared. However, the text of the document, is available here, in Armenian only. It is a longer document, but one well worth reading.

Against Self-Empowering Hierarchies and Destructive Mentalities

There's obviously been a wide variety of reactions to the announcement that LTP would be running for mayor. I think its brilliant. However, listening to the radio there are clearly those, it would seem both regular folks as well as regime individuals, who feel that the position is below him, or that he would be taking a step down. A recent lragir article addressed this to some extent a well, noting that that type of mindset is very hierarchical, and a remnant of the Soviet mentality.
The announcement is a tactical move, one of the crucial differences between someone like LTP and Sargsyan/Kocharyan. Another crucial difference is exactly what lragir points out, the mindset. The SS/RK purpose is to maintain power, and to gain more, for themselves, even at cost to the people and the country. What LTP is showing is that it is not about the power, or about an individual or an ego, but about an idea, a long-term goal, about finding the best way to get things changed.
What it comes down to is this - SS/RK are the folks who brought us the violence of March 1, the repressions and the political imprisonment that continue today - all in the name of their own power and rank. Of course they couldn't foresee LTP running for mayor - they wouldn't think of it themselves because it is not in their visual field. To now say that this move by LTP and the ANC is shameful, or looks bad, because it is a step down, is a very hierarchical, and Soviet, as Lragir pointed out, mindset. And a very harmful one to a country that is trying to move forward.

IN SEARCH OF A CIVIL SOCIETY – BUT NOT THE ONE WE HAVE

The Civilitas Foundation put out their report of 2008- about 10 of 60 pages of which are devoted to the significant domestic issues surrounding the presidential elections. Well, there is a lot to say about those 10 pages, and their purported objectivity and "unique Armenian perspective." Below is the start of some thoughts about the document...

IN SEARCH OF A CIVIL SOCIETY – BUT NOT THE ONE WE HAVE

Isn’t it just wonderful that Vartan Oskanyan, who served as the Minister of Foreign Affairs under Robert Kocharyan for ten years, is so motivated to create a civil society in Armenia? Who could have had better training? Kocharyan must have been a paragon of democratic instincts, despite the fact that he could not understand why an opposition should exist, let alone function.

Soon after leaving office in March 2008, Oskanyan initiated Civilitas to promote democracy, but especially civil society, which apparently did not yet exist in Armenia. Maybe then it is a very specific civil society that he is promoting, he and whoever is, in substance, supporting Civilitas offices (the poshest of any NGO in Armenia) and personnel. Ten years of unqualified service should be worth something, for sure. But is that all there is to the story? Maybe there are some answers to be found in the most recent report by Civilitas, “Armenia in 2008.”

In its introduction, the Report acknowledges that there are a number of international organizations that produce accountings of major events and issues of relevance to Armenia. This one, it promises, will be distinct from the others for its “Armenian” perspective. I guess organizations such as the Helsinki Citizens Assembly Vanadzor for one, which continues to produce reports on ongoing events in Armenia, are not considered to provide an “Armenian” perspective, or at least not the correct, “mature” one (p.33)...

there's more, keep reading

The document seems to no longer be accessible in English from the Civilitas Website - luckily I saved it when it was still accessible. Click here to see the full report.

Hitting below the belt, literally

Gagik Shamshyan, photojournalist for Aravot and Chorrord Ishkhanutyun, was admitted to the hospital after being beaten by security personnel at Yerevan State Linguistic University. After a protest action today, he and other reporters had gone to get the viewpoint of the university administration. Their entrance to the building was blocked by security personnel, who soon became very aggressive. Shamshyan was kicked and beaten, and in the radio story (see below) Shamshyan describes how he fell to the floor, and security kept kicking him and swearing at him, and how he kicked back to protect himself. He was kicked in the groin, and later noticed he had bleeding. He was taken to the hospital, and as per the a1plus article, he has been diagnosed with a fracture of the urethra.
The Ombudsman has already made a comment about the situation, calling for consequences; A1plus is reporting that someone named Mirijanyan has been detained.
We'll see whether he's prosecuted or not, whether there are any consequences.

Armenialiberty Radio, 15:00 report: story starts at 5:15 minutes, you can hear Shamshyan being beaten starting at 6:38 minutes

The Ombudsman 's Report, 2008

The Ombudsman's office has published its Annual Report for 2008. It is available only in Armenian at this point, and I haven't had a chance to read all 275 pages at this point. Harutyunyan is being criticized from all sides for the report, with the government saying his statements are unfounded and not objective. The Opposition, it seems, is critical that the document did not address the events surrounding the elections. Mr. Harutyunyan truly is one of those walking quite a difficult line. As the Opposition has truth on their side, I wonder what the government has on their's to pressure the Ombudsman.

How many people came?... And does it matter?

I had a chance, just this week, to catch a glimpse of the most recent Armenian Observer. I was actually somewhat impressed that the front story, March 4, was on the March 1 Demonstration in Yerevan. The title: "Over 10,000 people gather in central Yerevan to rally on the 1st anniversary of March 1st political clashes." Two main thoughts came to mind - here's one of them.

How do we estimate the number of people at a rally? The reported estimated numbers at this demonstration range from 5k-100k, and this huge range is typical of not only Armenia's demonstrations over the past 18 months, but other countries as well. So I Googled it. Apparently a professor at Berkeley tackled this problem during the Vietnam protests by putting grid markings on the ground where people stood, and averaging the densities per known area over time, at different demonstrations. This is what he found:
-Loosely packed people will stand approx one arm's length from the next person, which is approximately 1 person per 10sq feet = 1 person/.93 meter squared
-Tightly packed folks will be at 1 person per 4.5 sq ft= 1person/0.42 sq meter
-Very tightly packed people will be 1 per 2.5 sq feet = 1 person / .23 sq meter

What one eyewitness on March 1 this year told me was that it took 45 minutes for the march to pass by. If we assume that a moderately slow march is about 3 mi/hr, which is 5km/hr, thats 5 km/hr for 45 minutes, which is 3750 meters of people. People seem to be closer to each other in the front than in the back, and also more people in a row in the front than the back. So lets say on average there are 15 people in a row, and they are on average between the tightly and loosely packed. Obviously, this calculation is far from ideal, but lets see what it gets us:

15 in a row, at (.42+.93)/2 = .675 sq meters per person. That's .82 meters length and width for each person's average box. 15 people across x .82 = 12.3 meters across

12.3 meters x 3750 m = 45,000 sq meters
45,000 sq meters / .675 m sq per person = 66,666 people, if they were between loosely and tightly packed.

We can play with the numbers, making it less dense - for example, let's say they are loose all the way through. Thats the 1p/.93 msq, which is a .96 x .96 m box.
15 people across x .96 m = 14.4;, 14.4m x 3750m = 54,000 msq; and 54,000msq / .93msq per person = 56,250 people.

And I think these figures, looking at video and pictures, are if anything, an underestimate.

Impressive, I think. Not just the numbers, which can potentially be fudged any way you like. But that after so much time, so many come out in the cold, in a context of fear and repression, and for some, disheartenment, to speak out for themselves.

As much as I would love to know the concrete numbers, it is actually not the number that matters the most.

An important 50th birthday

March 5 marks what would have been the 50th birthday of Vazgen Sargsyan.
There is much to be said, revered, and even debated, about the life of this Armenian Hero.
He was assassinated on October 27, 1999.
Some pawns in the game were found guilty.
Is there any doubt in what truly happened?
Have we not seen this pattern of violence again?
I do find some comfort in the thought that the respect for such a man is shared by supporters of both sides of the present crisis: a Freedom Fighter, a man who died for his country, for his principles.

May he rest in peace.
May his hopes and dreams for a better Armenia come true today.
-----
Vano Siradeghyan's famous letter to Vazgen Sargsyan can be seen here (Armenian Only). Unfortunately, I don't remember the original link/site I saved this from.

March 1, 2009 - One year on

UPDATE: here is LTP's speech today

One year on, and the repressions and violence continue. The Trial of the 7, Jahangiryan's trial, and others continue, with no real signs of turning toward following the laws set forth in the Constitution, or any real logic, for that matter. Some trials have concluded, with outcomes that boggle the rational mind. A year on, we still have over 50 political prisoners (whether or not Jupiter and Mars have aligned in a way that they can be recognized by PACE as such, or not). We still have a government bent on silencing those who would speak out in any way. A year on, there are no answers, no resolution - only postponements, misinformation and confusion.

My sincerest condolences to the families of those who lost their lives of their loved ones.
My deepest gratitude to those who continue to struggle for a better Armenia.
-----

At this moment, police are blocking access to Matenadaran, and limiting incoming traffic from the outlying regions. LTP has already arrived at the scene. A police official has news that someone who has been in hiding may come to the demonstration today (eg Sukiasyan or Pashinyan), as per A1plus. SS lit a candle at St. Sarkis in memory of the 10 victims - I wonder if it was the candle he was too busy to use last year, getting inaugurated, on the Karasunk (40th day of mourning) of the victims of March 1.

It seems it is not just Armenians who have been looking ahead to this day. The US State Department and Human Rights Watch just released scathing reports regarding the current situation in Armenia. Journalists/Reporters from around the world seemed to take a heightened interested: Al Jazeera, Institute for War and Peace, The Moscow Times, to name a few.

And what is the rest of the Armenian nation doing on this historic day?

SDA is having a conference in Paris, where a documentary on March 1 will be shown as well. I'm hoping the documentary will be made available online.


The AAA is kicking off their annual Advocacy conference in Washington D.C. Have a great time at your Gala Banquet!