Some data and links on February 2013 election

The elections.am website has the official results of the presidential elections, in English and Armenian.  The results for each Constituency (Ընտրատարածք) and Precinct (Տեղամաս) are there, but then you have to go to another document to figure out what each of those is.  So I went through and put it together, for myself - below is a list of each constituency and precinct in which Raffi officially beat Serge. If there's an error - pelase let me know so I can correct it:

Number	Name	Raffi numbers	Raffi %	Serge numbers	Serge %
1	Yerevan: Avan, part of Nor-Nork	15752/35632	44.21%	15383/35632	43.17%
4	Yerevan:Arabkir	14051/32566	43.15%	13827/32566	42.46%
6	Yerevan: Ajapnyak	14566/31895	45.67%	13392/31895	41.99%
30	Lori: Gugark, Shahumyan, part of Vanadzor	18688/32235	57.97%	10588/32235	32.85%
33	Shirak: all parts, plus part of  Gyumri	14471/30171	47.96%	13995/30171	46.39%
34	Shirak: rest of Gyumri	22120/34661	63.82%	9693/34661	27.97%
35	Shirak: Azatan, Akhurik, Akhuryan	18443/29731	62.03%	9517/29731	32.01%

Some cities in which Serge supposedly beat Raffi by about 20,000 votes or more - just visually scanned - by constituency: 16 (Ararat), 17(Ararat), 18 (Ararat), 23 (Gegharkunik), 24 (Gegharkunik)

Gyumri, Meeting, February 23, 2013

Videos uploaded to youtube.com/tzitzernak

Some photos of the crowd- hard to capture as the landscape was sloping - i would say there were 2000+ people in the snowy cold:

Yup, that Armen Martirosyan of Zharangutyun

Sorry, the pictures are slightly out of order. This was as people spilled into the street at the end

And what would a post or a meeting be without police? Both from Yerevan and Gyumri, double the fun! As I mentioned in my tweet, one of the police in the perimeter denied being from Yerevan, and when asked where they were, said "on the inside," gesturing towards the crowd.

He had that camera going for a while, but I doubt he was the only one.

Feb 22, 2013 - in Pictures

Here is a series of panaromics taken from Azatutyan Hraparak today in order of time taken - its about 180 degrees view flattened - the farthest left is almost pointing at the Tumanyan and Teryan intersection, and far R is the stage in front of Opera - times are on top:

4:47 pm

4:47 pm

4:58 pm

5:06pm

5:13pm

5:36 pm

5:52pm

6:04pm

6:18pm

6:56

6:59pm

Also note that you cant tell just how dense things are way in the middle there.  Here are some more pics:

The Ambulance

My beloved Yerevan cops

Kapan

A Barely Visible Nikol Pashinyan (HAK) Speaking

A Barely Visible Zaruhi Postanjyan (Zh) Speaking

A Barely Visible Raffi Hovannisian Speaking, next to him are Armen Rustamyan (ARF) and Armen Martirosyan (Zh)

Pics, Videos and How Many People Fit in Azatutyan Hraparak

I've uploaded some new vides onto my Youtube account - youtube.com/tzitzernak from recent days in Yerevan. I'll upload more photos soon, some are up via my twitter account, predictably twitter.com/tzitzernak.

The question of how many people were there came up, as usual. Here is a calculation I did in the past for a friend.  Liberty Square/Azatutyan Hraparak (AH) was not full by any means, and it was probably on average a medium packed audience.  Here it is:

 I used http://www.mapdevelopers.com/area_finder.php to estimate (by outlining) the square meters of AH. I did it three times to get the best estimate. I went horizontally out from the flat part of the cement stage, and through to the benches and walkways. These obviously will make a difference. I felt this was among the most accurate ways of doing the calculation.

The three meters square I got were: 6927, 6929, and 6994.

A professor in Berkley did the calculations on numbers of people in a protest based on how tightly packed they were, during the Vietnam War protests in the US (I used it in a post several years ago: http://tzitzernak2.blogspot.com/2009/03/how-many-people-came-and-does-it-matter.html)

Loosely packed individuals: 1person/.93 meters squared

   based on that, with the three calculations for square meters/surface area above, the number of peopel who would fit in AH, loose packed are: 7448, 7450, 7520

Tightly Packed individuals: 1 person/.42 meters squared

    based on that, the number of people who fit are: 16492, 16497, 16652

Very Tightly Packed individuals = 1 person/.23 square meters

    based on that: 30117, 30126, 30408 people fit

So, with loosely to medium, we'd be calculating somewhere between 7,500 to 16,500 - IF the whole thing were packed, which it wasn't.  Maybe 60% full? So 4,500-9,900 - which I think is likely an overestimate from pictures and videos.  But at least its a more consistent approach.

My Question to the OSCE/PACE/ODIHR

My question is regarding the processes of these organizations.

The reports produced by these organizations during and after the 2008 Presidential Elections in Armenia were conflicted and confusing.  They were considered highly questionable by numerous national and international organizations of various types, all of which focus on democracy building and human rights in Armenia.

What have these organizations done to improve their own processes and systems, in order to create reports which are more valid and credible?

You and me, I thought we had something special...

Bazaz, you will be sorely missed...

I'll never forget you...

(photo from Lragir.am)

Just in Case Anyone has Forgotten

Just in case anyone has forgotten who else was involved in March 1. Some might say he was even the face of March 1...

Just sayin' ...

Wherever you are...

This one is for the taxi driver in Yerevan who tried to tell me that Dodi Gago was not involved in March 1, 2008:

Here is my original post on it, and that has more reference links.

"La Plus Belle Des Ruses Du Diable"

There has been much ado about Civilitas and Oskanyan recently. I have written numerous pieces on Oskanyan, on his role in, and persistent justifications of, March 1, on his duplicity, and truly truly impressive attempts to reformulate history while promoting himself. More to come, of course.

But in the meantime, some food for thought:

“The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn’t exist.”

That’s from The Usual Suspects, but according to Wikipedia, it actually comes from a very short piece by Baudelaire, Le Joueur généreux. An English translation is available here.

« Mes chers frères, n’oubliez jamais, quand vous entendrez vanter le progrès des lumières, que la plus belle des ruses du diable est de vous persuader qu’il n’existe pas ! »

Read the piece, in whatever language.

Caveat Emptor

I have not posted for quite a while, though I have had much to say. Some thoughts and ideas came and went, even though they were good. Some never fully matured, and some became overripe by the time i sat down to post.
Much has changed in the past 2 months. And I still have much to read and ponder.

But some things, some impression, some gut feelings, do not change no matter how many times I read them and think about them. Think about them and read about them. They, nay, this one thought I have, does not seem to pass. It is neither the most important, nor the most relevant.
It is part of a larger picture, story, reality, and truth, that remains to be written. Despite the time, it has yet to pass from my thoughts.

And so, here it is- about VartanOskanian.com, the biography section. And with only a small objective introduction, and one small comment.
There are three pictures on the biography section. The first picture was one with his family. The last picture was one of him at the UN (or similar such international meeting) with some familiar faces.

Here is the middle picture:


And here is my small comment:

Really??????? You're got some f**k*ng cojones posting that picture.

This is no longer a short comment.

I suppose it is eerily, fatefully appropriate, that in an attempt to endear himself to... whomever.. in the aftermath and ongoing turbulence of the March 1 he continues to deny... the only picture of himself in Armenia, with any government of Armenia, is with LTP, Vano, and Vazgen.

Oskanyan continued to, and increased his work with Kocharyan after October 27, 1997.
He was Kocharyan's face on March 1, 2008.
He continued to work with Kocharyan after March 1, 2008.

Where is his picture with Kocharyan? Where is any significant reference to his time spent in Kocharyan's administration.

Read it as you will. We all do. There are so many ways to read this.

Caveat Emptor

Just watch it

Don't anger dear Bazaz...

Poor Bazaz, defender of unknown things behind unlocked metal barricades that definitely need indefinite defending for unknown reasons... defending them, in his proud, righteous and definite manner... against those horrific, horrifying, dangerous, scandalous environmentalists...



For some more info: Ակտիվիստները Մաշտոցի այգում մարտի 31-ին (ՏԵՍԱՆՅՈՒԹ)


I'm not sure who/what the account "TheOrganizeNow" is, but they posted this on YouTube.
And boy am I glad they did - I was going into Bazaz withdrawal.

One almost feels sorry for them...

(Updated)
I suppose the police and authorities don't really know what else to do in these types of situations... peaceful citizens gathered protecting their own city, their environment, their country, their rights... I suppose the even mildly introspective policeman gets caught in his own conundrum, and potentially realizes the irony that as a policeman he is actually being destructive and acting illegally, whereas the citizens gathered are not... and that must throw that policeman into the biggest mental loop... which I suppose just leads to cognitive dissonance and increased hostility... I suppose that policeman will do just about anything to believe that those peaceful citizens are actually a threat... One almost feels sorry for them...

Did anyone see if Bazaz was there... I couldn't tell if he was. He'd be so sad if he missed it.

UPDATE! Bazaz was there! Someone sent me a pic of him there, be still my beating heart...!

Չորս տարի առաջ...

ՀԱՅՏԱՐԱՐՈՒԹՅՈՒՆ

Չորս տարի առաջ այս օրը ուժով և արյամբ, սահմանադրական բոլոր նորմերի խախտմամբ և Զինված ուժերի օգտագործմամբ ճնշվեց նախագահական ընտրությունների արդյունքների կեղծման դեմ քաղաքացիականընդվզումը:

Չորս տարի անց այդ արյունալի իրադարձության հետևանքները չեն վերացվել:

Եվ ոչ չորս տարի անց, ոչ էլ երբեւէ հնարավոր չի լինի վերականգնել այն տասը երիտասարդ կյանքերը, որ ընսհատվեցին Երեւանի կենտրոնում, ինչպես մարտադաշտում:

«Բանակն իրականում» նախաձեռնությունը արձանագրում է.

1. Մարտիմեկյան իրադարձություններից մինչ օրս չեն բացահայտվել տասը սպանությունները, դրանց համարպատասխանատու անձինք, և ոչ ոք քրեական կամ այլ պատասխանատվություն չի կրել այդ սպանություններիհամար: Չեն բացահայտվել և պատասխանատվության չեն կանչվել ցուցարարների վրա կրակելու հրաման տվածբարձրաստիճան պաշտոնյաները: Պետությունը ոչ միայն Խախտել է քաղաքացիների կյանքի իրավունքը, այլև քայլերչի ձեռնարկել զոհվածների ընտանիքներին և հասարակությանը բավարար պատասխան տալու համար կատարվածիմասին և վերացնելու անպատժելիության վերաբերմունքը ոստիկանական և զինված ուժերի կողմից:

2. Առ այսօր իրավական գնահատական չի տրվել 2008թ. մարտի 1-ին, Երևան քաղաքում քսանօրյա արտակարգ դրություն սահմանելու մասին Ռոբերտ Քոչարյանի արձակած հրամանագրին, որն ընդունվեց արտակարգ դրությանմասին օրենքի բացակայության պայմաններում: Որևէ քննության չեն արժանացել արտակարգ դրության պայմաններում քաղաքացիների իրավունքների խախտման փաստերը և որևէ իրավական գնահատական չի տրվելայդ իրավունքների սահմանափակումներին:

3. Որևէ քննության չի արժանացել 2008թ. փետրվարի 23-ին ՀՀ պաշտպանության նախարարի արձակած թիվ 0038հրամանի օրինականությունը և իրավական գնահատական չի տրվել խաղաղ ցուցարարների նկատմամբ Զինվածուժերի օգտագործման փաստին:

Հասարակությունը մինչ այժմ չի ստացել վերոնշյալ հարցերի պատասխանը, որի հետևանքով ձևավորվածանպատժելիության մթնոլորտը մնում է չհաղթահարված: Իրավական գնահատականների բացակայությունը չի կարողփոխարինվել իշխանությունների կողմից քաղաքական կամքի մասին բազմաթիվ հավաստիացումներով, քանի որանպատժելիության մթնոլորտը հղի է հասարակության համար նորանոր վտանգներով: Ավելին հենց այսօր Ազգային Ժողովում քվեարկության է դրված «Արտակարգ դրության իրավական ռեժիմի մասին» ՀՀ օրենքի նախագիծը, որով փորձ է արվում օրինականացնել արտակարգ դրության ժամանակ Զինված ուժերի անվերահսկելի կիրառումը`չունենալով 2008 թ. մարտի 1ի դեպքերի իրավական գնահատականները:

«Բանակն իրականում» քաղաքացիական նախաձեռնություն

Self-declared Inculpability and a Clear Conscience - and its off to the BHK!

None of the recent Oskanyan news is new, nor is it surprising. Its been commented on many times, recently and in the past, by my self and many others.

But I still can’t seem to resist the urge to comment on it. Its not as though he is the only person who played such a culpable role in the events of March 1, who is still out and about; or who ignores or denies their own or the government’s role/responsibility in what happened; or who is currently looking to gain a role or further their own role and power in politics; nor is he the only one playing the game of politics, or claiming to have the best for Armenia in mind.

So what is it?

Perhaps it is the vehemence with which he denies the culpable role he played during March 1, despite so much straightforward, undeniable evidence to the contrary; perhaps it is the ease with which he can speak of his clear conscience and faultlessness; perhaps it is his use of a supposedly independent organization whose mission is to “strengthen civil society” and “promote discourse” – quite commendable goals - to try to erase his past from history and people’s memories and promote himself and his intentions further; …

I’ve commented numerous times in the past on Civilitas and Oskanyan. For the record, I actually think that CivilNet has done some important work, and Civilitas is ‘addressing’ some very important topics, I am just extremely weary of this group in just about every way, to put it mildly.

This is a partial repetition of prior posts, but I can’t seem to help it – despite his self-declared inculpability, clear conscience and mighty goals, there’s a black hole in Oksanyan’s statements when it comes to actual civil society… here we go… (and this is just a start)...

--where are his comments on political prisoners, Northern Avenue evictions, police violence, army deaths, impending ecological nightmares, election corruption…

-- where are there any comments truly critical of Kocharyan? Is there nothing worthy of criticism in Kocharyan’s time of rule?...

-- I don’t even know where to start with March 1, his role, his denials, …

--Or where to start with applying to join BHK – Dodi Gago’s party. Hey, we all want a better Armenia. But what on earth makes you think that you should do it through joining BHK? One can work with a party, but joining it means you agree with the principles and actions of that party – really, Oskanyan? These are, of course, rhetorical questions. The only reason I can see for Oskanyan to join BHK is to increase his own power and potential to become politically active, and to possibly to consolidate Kocharyan’s resources… Putting it carefully:

--It is thought by some that BHK was founded by Kocharyan…
--It is also thought by some that Oskanyan is still in close contact, not just for social and personal reasons, with Kocharyan...
--It is also thought by some that Kocharyan is lurking in the political background…
--It is also thought by some that there is an increasing rift between HHK and BHK…
--Some have noted that it is interesting that CivilNet covers what it does, appears well funded, has gained an audience, has a nice show face, and is potentially ready to be used for numerous imaginable purposes…

Of course, there are varying levels of reliability in the varying amounts of data for the above. But one might see how I might write what I did above:
…and to possibly to consolidate Kocharyan’s resources…

Phew, that was a mouthful. I’ll leave it there for now.

Here are some links to my old posts on this topic, and many have their own links...

http://tzitzernak2.blogspot.com/2010/02/i-feel-bad-for-ostriches-civilitas.html

http://tzitzernak2.blogspot.com/2011/06/trying-to-reformulate-history.html

http://tzitzernak2.blogspot.com/2009/03/in-search-of-civil-society-but-not-one.html - My thoughts on one of the original Civilitas publications - the Report on 2008

http://tzitzernak2.blogspot.com/2010/05/on-civilitas-oskanyan-and-meghri.html

Waiting...

In the midst of further fraud and falsification in the National Assembly, workings to make states of emergency like March 1 'legal' about one year ahead of the next presidential elections, the recent resurgence of Kocharyan, and so on and so forth...
...
I'm awaiting the results of the Hrazdan election...

And so it begins...

More talk about and from Oskanyan re-entering politics... 'nuff said.
Hayk Gevorgyan imprisoned on trumped up charges...
Kocharyan in the press...
Upcoming Parliamentary elections...
Presidential elections in sight...

And so it begins...