Thursday, January 8, 2009

Bryza, Aliev, and mixed messages...

On January 5th, RFE ran a story headlined "Aliev Again Threatens New War for Kharabakh," where he apparently stated, among other things, that war could start "any second." So I checked the Azeri sources, and lo and behold, a similar story. AzerNews on December 30, 2008, ran a piece called "Report Claims Turkey is Preparing Azerbaijan for War." And, while browsing AzerNews, I ran into this story, from January 7th, "US Garabagh mediator 'to be replaced,'" apparently because of so much work Bryza has on other issues. He's probably on his way out anyway, I would think, with the change in administration. But with so much time and energy invested into this issue, it seems strange to 'replace' him now, or, to be overwhelmed with his amount of work now. Maybe not.
But let's go back a second. Where did this huge imminent threat that Aliev speaks of come from? Yes, there have been aggressive statements and small skirmishes/acts of aggression along the border, but this seems like a new qualitative level. Potentially a reaction to something. If I had been promised a deal, rumors of which have been buzzing around for a while, and it hadn't come through, I'd react too.
Hopefully this is just the 'usual' progression of aggression in an already tense situation. Regardless, with the upcoming Trial of the Seven, the PACE proceedings and possible sanctions, and the tumbling of the economic wonderland RK and SS built over the past 10 years, the tensions and pressure must be so great, I'm surprised SS can even think straight.
In fact, he might just feel like he wishes he'd taken the blue pill instead of the red pill, and not ended up in the real mess he's in today.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

i dont want war, it will cripple our homeland again, but let them come we will stand our ground as we did before. now i am an adult, if there is such war i am prepared to go to Hayastan and MURDER every azerGAY there is......"JUST BRING IT"