Wednesday, May 20, 2009

So Many Games, Just One SS - Who To Trust?

Over the past week, we've seen a number of interesting, well, let's call them phenomena.
BHK and HHK keep getting into brawls, which are potentially escalating, but there are no straight answers or straight stories, since both sides seem to be actively engaged in coverup and denial of these incidents.
The Mayoral election is heating up, and interestingly enough, of the four coalition member groups that are supposedly running separately, the BHK, at least when looking at the videos and news sources (which I admit is not the best way to judge nor is it objective), seems to have the most backing of the four. Orinats Yerkir seems almost lost in the fray. The ARF is campaigning, and not surprisingly they've made some announcements doubting the legitimacy of the government and declaring the electoral process problematic.
So are the BHK and the HHK fighting it out? Is the HHK upset that the BHK is really, actually, trying, and maybe has a chance over the HHK - that is, is this a sign of deepening rifts? Or is it a front, all make believe for those observing, those undecided, as some have suggested...
If it is for real, if the divide is growing stronger, it is of no surprise, not to anyone who has thought about it, at least. This is what happens when the ties that bind are severely outnumbered by the differences, and the tie that does bind is about maintaining or gaining power, which is a selfish principle in and of itself. When self interest, self maintenance and advancement are the driving forces, then it is no surprise that when it comes to true policy decisions (which is what voters ideally but not always follow, but can be important in certain cases, case in point the ARF and its ideology), decisions made on opinions that are not part of the ties that bind, it is not surprising that tensions arise. And this is what happened under SS.
Here I will digress. Here is where I see one of the major differences between RK and SS. Both of them made deals, dealt with people they would not have otherwise to ensure security, power. Given, RK was never quite in the position SS is in now (but is that cause or effect?). But RK thought he was in control, he thought he could manipulate and deal his way out of and around anything, with anyone, about any issue. Some might say he thought himself genius enough to twirl anyone and any country around his little finger. (Maybe he just thought he could squash them under that finger?)
But SS, SS does not think himself a genius. And RK passed on this situation, these dealings, to SS. I think, and clearly this is my opinion only, that SS is pulled in a million directions, and unlike RK, he knows he is in deep, deep trouble. Dealings are falling apart, and making new deals is not helping. And maybe, just maybe, unlike RK, he sees the problems with a touch more humanity - maybe not. But I think he must feel alone, he must feel isolated - really, who can the guy turn to? The ARF? Baghdasaryan? or will he turn to Dodi Gago, or RK? Who can he trust?
He is playing with Genocide... was it for the ARF? He is toying with NK. He is dealing with Turkey. For Turkey, Armenia is a nuisance, a pest, just one more obstacle on the way to bigger and better things. But for Armenia, Turkey is the core of so many issues - border relations, Genocide Recognition, relations with Azerbaijan in the NK conflict. And that's not mentioning the internal economic, social and political problems at home, including the impending dissolution of the coalition.
That's alot of games for one person. And, I think, he knows it.

No comments: