Why is the ARF so upset... now? And whose failure is it...?

Just last week, the ARF threatened to leave the ruling coalition in Armenia. And just today, they harshly criticized the policies of SS regarding recent developments in Armenian-Turkish relations. In fact, judging by the picture, they seem furious. Why is that? Here's a thought...

For years, the identity, ideology, and policy of the ARF has been anti-Turk with Genocide recognition as a prerequisite for developing relations with Turkey, and focused on Genocide recognition. And to no small extent: the ARF has made a policy of criticizing (not always politely or constructively) individuals and organizations that did not share the same exact priorities. After Independence in 1991, and through the war years, the ARF was critical of the Government of Armenia for a multitude of reasons. Not the least of these was that the Government did not base its policies on the ARF policies of anti-Turkish sentiment and Genocide Recognition. At a time when the country was just finding its ground and fighting a war -- trying to find enough wheat for the daily needs of its citizens and trying to maintain supplies for her active military -- the ARF basically demanded that what was best for the survival of the newborn country be supplanted by the ARF's ideology. This type of behavior has been consistent in the recent history of the ARF, in all dimensions -- from expectations to how Armenia should be run, to how it attracts and molds its members, and the identity which it instills in them. And so it was not surprising that in the Spring of 2008, after having paired up with RK for a number of years already, the ARF took the opportunity to join the ruling coalition of SS.

During the past 6-8 months, with Genocide Recognition as a possibility, the ARF has been acting like the king of the pride. However, just as so many have warned for so long, when the economic, political, and/or military situation of Armenia is so precarious, nothing comes free. Genocide recognition became predictably entangled in border talks, NK resolution, and by implication, the present day political situation - weakening Armenia's stand in all of those areas, and strengthening nothing. Pushing for recognition, which as always was spearheaded by the ARF, has severely complicated every other problem that Armenia faces today and in the near future. Just like so many who have been criticized by the ARF warned.

And now, the Turkey-Armenia talks may be moving forward, and recognition by the US may or may not happen, not to mention absolutely no prerequisite recognition by Turkey. Even if Obama does recognize the Genocide, much harm has been done. Its (almost) moot whether or not the US recognizes the Genocide of the Armenians - and it doesn't really matter if it happens now, or in five years. It doesn't change what happened then, and it doesn't fix what's happening now. In fact, it may be making it worse -- tit and tat always come together. Not only that, but there may be (gasp)relations between the government the ARF is a part of, and Turkey - without Turkish recognition

In their blind pursuit, the ARF also cheapened the Genocide: the strategic, mass annihilation of our grandparents, and their families. The ARF managed to cheapen this by insisting it be put in on the table in spite of everything that has been happening. So what does the ARF have left?

So now they scream bloody murder. If the mayoral elections aren't fair, we're pulling out, they say. Well, we all know the ARF says that most, if not all, elections in the past 15 years have been marred with inconsistencies. How would these Mayoral elections suddenly be perfect? This is only meant to provide the ARF with a new role, since they abused their old one.

Now they have paved a way out, a way to save face. And why do they need this? Why do they need a new role? Because they can no longer function within the coalition, it seems. Things are not being done the way they want them done, and the issues they push are only causing more harm in the greater picture. And so they become discontent - discontent stemming not only from shame, is my guess, but anger. Did they not get a big enough piece of the pie? What did SS deny them?... something, but I don't know what.

These patterns and inconsistencies are obvious to those who are not members of the ARF, and who think - that qualification is important. Many diasporan Armenians identify the ARF as the epitome of an Armenia identity, therefore anything the Central Committee, or their school or church, puts forth must be truly Armenian. But international organizations, governments, and independent thinkers and observers know otherwise. Who remains as their audience, then? Their own masses and themselves, to whom they are trying to appear internally consistent. And they are, the ARF is internally consistent, provided the examples are chosen very, very carefully.

As usual, the ARF is just trying to keep its options open. Trying to keep power wherever it can. Trying to maintain its agenda, whatever it truly is.

And what of the value of Armenian life, now, or in 1915. I can imagine, in fact I know, that my grandparents and greatgrandparents would not sacrifice present day lives, human rights and democracy in Armenia today, for recognition by any government (what does recognition mean, or change, when compared to what it may be traded for)? Their lives, just like the lives of Armenians now, are not up for trade.

UPDATE AND CLARIFICATION: The ARF made the statements 4/22 when they were not yet aware (it seems) that a 'Roadmap' was agreed upon by Turkey and Armenia. Now the ARF has issued an even angrier condemnation, now that news of the 'Roadmap' has spread.